
On my drive back from Lithuania to London, I listened to FPL podcasts for an entire day. Here’s what you need to know.
Rule changes
DEFCON points – i.e. points for defensive contributions. Defenders now get two points if they do 10 or more CBITs (clearances, blocks, tackles and interceptions) in a game; midfielders and forwards get two points if they do 12 CBITRs (CBITs plus recoveries).
Chips: the assistant manager chip is gone. Instead, we now get two free hits, two triple captains and two bench boost. One to use in each half of the season. You still get two wildcards – same as last year.
Free AFCON transfers: free transfers will be topped up to five in GW16 when African players are called up to the competition. Tip: no point in saving up transfers ahead of that.
Price changes
DEFCON points mean that defenders and defensive midfielders score more points than before. Yet, their prices don’t seem to have gone up meaning they are better value. Tarkowski, would have top scored on DEFCON points last season with 44, costs 5.5. Premium CBs like Gabriel (4 DEFCON in 2024/5) and Van Dijk (22 in 2024/5) still cost 6.0.
Caicedo would have been the top scoring midfielder for DEFCON last year with 42 points. He only costs 5.5. A decent option now, but in previous years he would have had no chance. Attacking players generally don’t get much DEFCON – except Bruno Fernandes who would have got 22 DEFCON last season and costs 9.0 this year. The bottom line: defensive players have become more valuable than they were.
Elsewhere, Haaland costs £14.0, down from last year, while Salah costs £14.5, up from last year. No more super-priced Trent. Overall, player pricing seems to be pretty accurate as most of the pundits are struggling to pick teams, meaning that value is hard to find because players have been fairly priced. Should be a good season. More variation and harder to find the ‘template’ team.
Optimal formation
Two years ago I used AI to help me code the optimal formation. 3-5-2 was the answer That has served me and (hopefully) Brazilfooty followers well. But strangely, when using last season’s scores adjusted for DEFCON, the modelling pointed to 4-3-3 every time. It turns out that ChatGPT 5 was doing some truly weird and downright dumb stuff, but after many arguments and a lot of me correcting (the AI) and prodding, 4-3-3 is, in fact, the best.
Why more forwards when defenders and midfielders become more valuable?
Thanks to DEFCON, we want to have more defenders and more valuable defenders – and we need to find the money to pay for them by sacrificing mid-level midfielders. The model now wants you to go with four at the back (e.g. Milenkovic 5.5, Murillo 5.5, van Dijk 6.0 and Gvardiol 6.0), which means more money on the defence than before.
Is it because forwards had an unusually good season last year?
No.
Yes, but the difference in price between forward bench fodder and starter is much greater than the difference between midfield bench fodder and starter.
I know, right. Was GPT just hallucinating again? After many grovelling apologies for its mistakes, I’m convinced that I got it working property and this is what it said:

In other words go for two premium midfielders and have a £5.0 DEFCON monster to support them, with a £4.5m and £5.0m midfielder on the bench. Make sure you get your premiums (like Haaland or Salah) and have forwards like Wood or Joao Pedro, both £7.5m, to support.
Yes, but Chris Wood isn’t going to have another top season like that (watch out for Igor Jesus!); Haaland will be better and Salah not as good (IMO thanks to arrival of Wirtz)
So I told GPT to ignore Chris Wood and to use Salah and Haaland’s stats from 2023/4 and this is what it came up with:

Of course, past performance is no guide to future success and the likes of Wirtz and Gyokeres had no points last season so the model doesn’t consider them. And Luiz Diaz has gone. Players like Ait Nouri are playing in different teams with different roles.
Models are useful, but the key to FPL is finding the low-priced gems before others do and picking players who are about to go into a good run of form and selling those who are about to do the opposite. Models can’t tell you that. But still, I think this structure is useful and I will be using it.
My team
With all of this in mind, this is my team for gameweek 1.

What? I’ve completely ignored the script. Yep – here’s the twist (and the early season mindgames). I always find it impossible to know which players or clubs are going to start the season well. It happens every year. I pick a team and want to make about five changes in week 2. Last year I even did a wildcard in GW2. Afterwards I thought, why don’t I treat GW1 like a free hit and try to maximise points for that week and then wildcard like I normally do. Normally, I don’t have time to check all preseason form, but even this year when I did (thanks to a day of podcasts) there are still too many things I don’t know and want to see before making my choices (How will Kudus fit into the Spurs team? What will the new United play like? Was Salah’s performance in the Community Shield a one off? What will Pep’s starting XI look like?). So I will either free hit in GW2 and wildcard in GW3, or just wildcard in GW2 if I feel like I know what I want my final team to be.
The Brazilfooty Brazil team
It would be wrong to post on Brazilfooty without having a proper Brazilian angle. So, here is the Brazilfooty Brazil team using only Brazilian players. Not bad huh? Can any other country post a better team, I wonder?

Best podcasts
The amount of content out there talking about FPL is impressive. Two of my favourites – Always Cheating and FPL Optimised – are now sadly gone. But if you want good content, and food for thought, check out the podcasts below. Warning: it can be a rabbit hole, and you can get lost in your head with information overload. But, I’ve always found it useful to listen to one a week to stay tuned, and can’t argue with any of them on a 30-hour drive.

FPL pod (official FPL podcast): good all-round show, giving you the key information you need to know. Fun vibes too.
Fantasy Football Scout: a team of podcasters who publish stuff daily, including team reveals and interview with former winners. Great material for more than 24 hours on the road.
Above average FPL: two light-hearted lads who have their finger on the pulse.
Planet FPL: impressive detail.
Other recommendations for a long drive
Diary of a CEO
Ex Google exec (Mo Gawdat) on AI: alarming and insightful. Got me thinking deeply.
Geoffrey Hinton (Godfather of AI) we’ve already lost control: after listening to this, following on from the last one, and I am seriously considering retraining as a plumber.
This diet could fix your mental health: how too many carbs make us cranky, unhealthy and not focused.
The role of dopamine in addiction: we need dopamine to be motivated, but the body naturally balances it out in a sort of downer. Too much dopamine means too much downer, which makes us anxious, cranky and wanting more dopamine.
The Rest is Classified
Destroying the Nazi nuclear programme: impressive story, and funly told.
Joe Rogan
Chadd Wright, a former US Navy Seal. I thought this was going to be about health and self improvement, but it was more about religion and general chit chat about hunting and things like that. Good insights into the American psyche, religion, spirituality, how to shoot a squirrel and what makes Rogan such good podcaster.
What is Brazilfooty?
Its a blog run by a dude who lives in London, who used to live in Brazil and has a soft spot for Brazilian football. Limited time means he rarely writes about it, but occasionally writes about other things. Sometimes talks in the third person. Brazilfooty has an FPL league. Join using the code: kmfsw9.