2018 Brasileirão predictions – how did I do?

Should’ve gone all in

It’s a hard job predicting what will happen in Brazilian football. How did I do in 2018?

On the whole, very good. In the 2018 season preview in April, I said that Palmeiras would be Champions, and they were. And I correctly predicted the four relegated teams from the Série A. I also suggested that the bookies were overestimating the odds of a Brazilian club winning the Cop Libertadores, which was won by Argentinian side River Plate.

The big miss was Corinthians, who I thought would finish second (after winning the league last year). They finished 13th instead. To be fair, nobody saw that coming or knew that Fabio Carille would leave in the middle of the season. Or that the club would fail to buy a replacement for Jô. Most of the other picks were quite good, and they helped me into third spot, out of 49, in a predictions game I play with Brazilian friends. Happy days.

Outturn versus what I said in April:

 Actual
finish
Predicted
finish
Diff
Palmeiras11+0
Flamengo25+3
Internacional38+5
Grêmio43-1
São Paulo56+1
Atlético-MG613+7
Atlético-PR79+2
Cruzeiro84-4
Botafogo910+1
Santos107-3
Bahia1111+0
Fluminense1216+4
Corinthians132-11
Chapecoense1414+0
Ceará1515+0
Vasco1612-4
Sport1719+2
América-MG1817-1
Vitória1918-1
Paraná2020+0

Final league table:

  PWDLFADiffPts
1Palmeiras382311464263880
2Flamengo38219859293072
3Internacional381912751292269
4Grêmio381812848272166
5São Paulo381615746341263
6Atlético-MG381781356431359
7Atlético-PR381691354371757
8Cruzeiro381411133434053
9Botafogo381312133846-851
10Santos381311144640650
11Bahia381212143941-248
12Fluminense38129173246-1445
13Corinthians381111163435-144
14Chapecoense381111163450-1644
15Ceará381014143238-644
16Vasco381013154148-743
17Sport38119183557-2242
18América-MG381010183047-1740
19Vitória38910193663-2737
20Paraná38411231857-3923

What next? Betting tips? Professional scout? Giving it large down the pub? Yes, to at least one of the above.

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